2004 Year in Review

Election Day - what to watch for

My prediction is that there is a 50% chance that Kerry will win in a very close election, at least with the popular vote. I think that there is a 25% chance that Kerry will win with a much larger margin than pundits are predicting. By large, I mean that Kerry would win by 4 or 5 percentage points. There is a 25% chance that President Bush will be re-elected, probably by a small margin.

I think that of the battleground states, Kerry will win New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa and New Mexico. I think Kerry will win either Ohio or Florida (maybe both). Many of these states are extremely close, so a couple of percentage swing could create either a Bush victory or a Kerry landslide electorally.

Bush will take Nevada, Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado and possibly either Florida or Ohio.

There is also a considerable possibility that President Bush could win the popular vote, but lose the electoral college. Senator Kerry appears to be doing much better in the close battleground states and President Bush is doing quite well in those states he's expected to win easily. So, we could have the opposite result from 2000. If this happens, will Republicans say that Kerry is not legitimate?

My prediction is that Kerry will get 51% of the vote and Bush will receive 48%. Nader will get about 1%. Kerry's electoral total will be around 285-300.

What to look for

The key to this election will come early in the evening. The key states are Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all in the Eastern time zone. Whoever takes two of three of these states is very likely to be elected President. If President Bush wins in Pennsylvania, it is very unlikely that Kerry could survive that. That's a sign that Americans have decided not to change horses during a war.

If Kerry sweeps these three states it's going to be a long night for Republicans. That would mean that the intensity is on the Democratic side this year and that the American people have decided that they want a fresh start with a different President. If Kerry wins two of the three, Bush is unlikely to win.

Another positive sign for the Democrats is turnout. Registererd Republicans tend to vote in larger percentages than Democrats. That means that if there are more voters - they're likely to be Democrats. A very large turnout likely means a Democratic victory.

One way or another, it has been an interesting, well contested race with significant differences between the two candidates.

In addition, there have been an incredible number of significant events the past few weeks, from the discovery of the missing explosives in Iraq, to Osama bin Laden's message to America, to the intensified strife in Iraq.

By Tuesday night or Wednesday morning we will know - maybe!

by John Legler, Guest Columnist
November 1, 2004