2003 Year in Review

Iraq – The Consequences of War II

The positioning of American troops in the strategically sensitive Middle East will benefit the United States both militarily and economically. As a deterrent to rogue nations and terrorist groups, the benefits are apparent. The closer we are to the enemy, the more defensive the enemy must become. The more these groups have to worry about their own well-being, the less they can plot against the United States and its interests.

In addition to the strategic significance offered by our Iraqi based military, we should gain immeasurably by our ‘most favored nation’ status with a new Iraqi government. In particular, we will have access to the rich oil reserves of Iraq. This newly liberated country sits atop the second largest reserves of oil in the world – second only to those in Saudi Arabia.

Iraqi oil will generate significant wealth for the country almost immediately, and, unlike resource-poor Afghanistan, the wealth will allow the country to establish a solid government and to rebuild its infrastructure rapidly. As the government uses the money to create jobs, the country should see a growth in all areas of its economy, including business and education. A population that is working and enjoying a better life is less likely to engage in activities detrimental to its own well-being, or to allow anti-government forces to influence it to behave irrationally. The United States is counting on this scenario to curtail extremist activities.

The Saudis have reason to worry, however. As a ‘most favored nation’ with Iraq, we no longer well be tied to the unbalanced manipulations of the OPEC cartel. Oil production and pricing standards will be consistent with American demands, as well as those with whom the United States, Great Britain, and the new Iraq are allied. Particularly the Saudis can count on losing the United States, the largest single purchaser of that nation’s petroleum production, as a major customer.

Americans who are worried about the huge war debt we have incurred in undertaking this mission to oust Saddam and his regime can take solace in knowing that the debt will be repaid by the Iraqis from their oil revenues. Given our economic condition, we will not sweep these debts under the rug as we have following other wars.

At the same time, a protracted American presence in Iraq is a necessity until the fledgling Iraqi government is firmly in place and functioning smoothly with control over the country. Since Iraq will be a staging area for American action against terrorist groups and rogue nations, our personnel and materiel will be necessary to protect the oil pipelines and pumping facilities from extremist sabotage.

European animosity toward the United States hegemony in Iraq could grow as France, Germany, and Russia find themselves on the outside looking in, although a permissive Iraq under U. S. and British guidance could allow Europe minimum involvement in Iraq to placate those feelings. But France, Germany, and other former allies should not be rewarded consequent to this operation, but only after their support in future endeavors.

To suggest the United Nations serve as the transitional entity between Saddam and the new Iraqi government is preposterous. This stumbling, lumbering body has proven itself incapable of a consistent, coherent policy in dealing with every other crisis it has faced; there is no reason to assume Iraq would benefit from United Nations political, economic, or military oversight. It is an organization befitting Allen Sherman’s definition of a committee: “A committee is where everyone puts in a color and it comes out gray.”

How does China feel about our war in Iraq? It has expressed some concern in opposition to United States action in the Mideast region. Does it feel threatened by the prospect of an American military closer to its western borders and near volatile Tibet? China is faced with an aroused American military willing to take preemptive steps in defense of the nation. It may withdraw more from the diplomatic community if it fears knowledge of its own military buildup will incite opposition. A confrontation, however, between China and the United States is not an imminent possibility.

The outcomes of the Iraqi war are significant in their realities and in their possibilities. The Iraqi people will have an opportunity to build a freer and a more open society, with an educated and prosperous population. The United States and its allies will gain a foothold from which to launch campaigns against terrorist/extremist groups and nations. Iraqi oil will repay the huge war debts, and American reliance on Saudi oil will diminish as the Iraqi oil goes online.

The United Nations will continue to be a debating society, prone to inaction and delay. Eventually it will become irrelevant in dealing with any serious world problem. We can expect a determined effort by the Germans and the French to build a European coalition to oppose the power of the United States. It will fail. Russia? Russia is a teeter-tottering bear that will see the advantages of association with the United States is preferable to the might-be of a European union.

This small war – the Iraqi War, Gulf War II – has produced profound changes among the nations of the world and will continue to do so as nations jockey for position in their relations with the United States, the undisputed world power.

by William Driver, Guest Columnist
July 4, 2003