A panel of experts–people knowledgeable about the area, its people, and its problems–is very much in agreement that a military solution, by itself, to the challenge of ISIS, a.k.a. ISIL, is no solution at all. The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant is a terrorist jihadist rebel group.
A seminar at the Carnegie Institute for International Peace in Washington, D. C. on Thursday, February 12, 2015, was moderated by Katherine Wilkens, Deputy Director of the Middle East Program at the Institute. The panel consisted of Lukman Faily, Iraq’s Ambassador to the United States (second from tight); Marwan Muasher who was Jordan’s Foreign Minister from 2002-04 and then Deputy Prime Minister from 2004-05 (right); James F. Jeffrey, U. S. Ambassador to Turkey from 2008-10 and to Iraq from 2010-2012 (left.)
These experts believe a military response is necessary; but it is not a solution to the problem of ISIS.
Ambassador Faily was very frank about the misguided rule of Iraq’s former Prime Minister, Nouri al-Maliki. He blamed Maliki’s poor governance on pressure from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, commanded by Major General Mohammed Ali Jafari. Ambassador Jeffrey believes General Jafari wields the most power in Iran. Perhaps because of pressure from General Jafari, Maliki chose to favor the Shia majority and exclude the Sunni minority from Iraq’s Civil Service. This had been mostly Sunni under Saddam Hussein. Maliki chose to neglect the needs of the Sunni communities.
ISIS offered an alternative to the ghetto in which the Sunnis found themselves. After al-Maliki was replaced, his successor, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi moved swiftly to form an inclusive government. The more difficult task is to form a more-inclusive society.
In terms of difficulty, think of President Abraham Lincoln freeing the slaves and how long it has taken the U. S. to form a more-inclusive society. We are not totally there yet. So it is not a problem Prime Minister al-Abadi is going to be able to solve immediately. However, it must be solved, so that all Iraq’s citizens will pledge allegiance to their country. This, of course, means governing for the common good of all the people, not just the Shia majority and the wealthy elite.
Muasher followed up on this objective. He pointed out that throughout the region, unemployment runs about 30%; the median income is about U. S. $200 dollars a month. ISIS offers $1000 a month to any soldier who will come and fight for them. That alone is very attractive. Their fighters may not be all that religious, but for a thousand dollars a month–[they would] shoot a lot, and pray a little!
ISIS offers cradle-to-the-grave social security in the context of a religious commune (similar to a Jewish kibbutz.) No one is to go hungry, to be homeless, or to lack medical care. It glorifies the social justice dimension of Islam. Judaism and Christianity also have a strong social justice dimension, but frequently it is ignored.
Hence, ISIS has appeal to the multitudes of marginalized peoples under the rule of fabulously wealthy shieks and plutocrats. According to Muasher, there is a vast undercurrent of sympathy for ISIS throughout the region. He believes that militarily, ISIS can be defeated in one place, only to pop up again in another place.
Muasher feels that to extinguish ISIS, the region must develop a more inclusive society and one that tolerates differences in religion, politics and life-style. This, he says, will require better education, a better distribution of wealth, and several generations to achieve. He exhorts that the process needs to begin immediately. This is asking the wealthy to share the wealth and the powerful to share the power. It doesn’t seem to be happening here in the U. S. A., so why is it going to happen in the Middle East? The alternative is perpetual war.
Jeffrey was in general agreement, but he laid more blame at the door of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. He discounted Iran’s President, Hassan Rouhani, as having any substantial power to alter things for the better.
However, he failed to mention that General Jafari only keeps his job as long as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei allows him to keep it. A high unemployment rate, poverty, and lack of opportunity–combined with exclusion–is a strong mix that can explode anytime. If we can only offer “rule by the billionaire class,” we have nothing to offer in the way of a solution.
Before we try to solve the problems that threaten us abroad, we need to address the inequalities and exclusion of our own society. To defeat ISIS, we need something better to offer.