Senate Republicans like Lindsey Graham have been advocating that President Barack Obama send arms to the “Free Syrian Army,” refusing to admit that there is no such thing as a “Free Syrian Army,” although it sounds good. Now these chicken-hawks are pressuring the President to send arms to the new government of Ukraine–as if this would put an end to the conflict there. Given their logic, a good way to put out a fire would be to throw gasoline on it.
While attending an event sponsored by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, D. C., on Friday, February 20, 2015, I had the privilege of listening to two outstanding scholars discuss the situation in Ukraine. Both Rajan Menon and Eugene Rumer are fluent in Russian. Our moderator was David E. Hoffman, Contributing Editor at the Washington Post and Pulitzer Prize winning author. Time was given for attendees to ask questions, and they did.
The attendees were more than a collection of writers. Interestingly enough, there were people from the Department of Defense, USAID, the State Department, non-governmental organizations from Ukraine and Russia, and others associated with United Nations organizations. They wanted to hear the views of Menon, Rumer and Hoffman. While the three held slightly divergent views about some matters, they emphatically agreed on one very important point.
Under no circumstances should the United States directly or indirectly get military weapons to the new Government of Ukraine. They did not name Republican Senators by name, but they did make the point that it would be like trying to put out a fire by throwing gasoline on it.
They also pointed out that our coming Presidential election will most likely politicize the issue, making a solution even more difficult. Their advice:
- quietly send an envoy to Russia, to determine what is the minimum President Putin will accept to get a deal
- then set up formal negotiations.
In their judgment, Putin can keep the area stirred up for a long period on time, at little cost to him but great cost to the U. S. and the European Union. They stated that the West greatly under-estimated Russia’s reaction to trying to bring Ukraine into the EU and possibly NATO. Menon rhetorically asked, “What would be the reaction of the United States if Russia signed a treaty with Mexico for economic integration and a military alliance?”
Rumer asserted that Russia does not want a military occupation of Ukraine. That would be extremely costly to them. However, given Germany’s experience overcoming the poor economic conditions in East Germany, it is unlikely they, or the West, would really want to sink the trillions of dollars into Ukraine that would be required to overcome its poor infrastructure. In short, Ukraine is no prize for anyone.
I asked about the role of the oligarchs in this conflict. They pointed out that the Russian oligarchs were completely subservient to the Russian Government. Whereas in Ukraine, they have their own armed groups independent of the Government. Not all of them support the Government.
Conclusion: If we want to really complete the destruction of Ukraine, all we need to do is send arms. Throw gasoline on the fire!